We had inflation data for Tokyo for March today, with another rise recorded. All three of the measures came in above expected, all of them above (or equal to in the case of the headline) the February reading, and all three also above the Bank of Japan 2% target.

At the margin, the data is another argument for a nearer-term Bank of Japan rate rise. Both services and goods prices are seeing rising inflation pressures.

Soon after the CPI data came the ‘Summary’ of the recent Bank of Japan meeting (March 18 and 19). The reports highlighted the debate on the Board. Those in favour of quicker rate rises pointed to:

surging food prices could persist and have a "big impact" on underlying inflation.

  • stronger wage growth supports tightening case
  • and one member said Japan is nearing its inflation target
  • Those taking a more cautious approach cited tariff-related risks to the economy. After the meeting, at his press conference and since then, Governor Ueda warned of heightening global economic risks also.

USD/JPY saw some swings in response to the data and Summary. It hit highs above 151.20 before dropping back to session lows around 150.70.

Very early in the session, late US afternoon we had remarks from the fed’s Collins and Barkin (posts above).

News and data flow otherwise was light.

AUD and NZD have lost ground, with no obvious ‘smoking gun’ news crossing. Some yen cross selling is chatter.

Gold raced to a record high, above US$3075.

gold wrap 28 March 2025 2
Source: Forex Live