Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos from WSJ

Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.

A year ago MoM data that will fall off from the YoY calculation 1 month at a time:

  • May 0.0%
  • June 0.1%
  • July 0.2%
  • August 0.1%
  • September 0.2%
  • October 0.2%

3 month average: 0.1%
6-month average: 0.13%

For the core MoM over the next 6-months

  • May 0.1%
  • June 0.2%
  • July 0.2%
  • August 0.1%
  • September 0.3%
  • October 0.3%

3 month average of core PCE: 1.67%
6 month average of core PCE: 0.2%

Gains of 0.2% or more will mathematically move the YoY up from the headline and the core measures.

Source: Forex Live