West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends its winning streak for the fourth trading session on Tuesday. The Oil price climbs to near $62.00 as the 90-day agreement between the United States (US) and China to reduce tariffs substantially by 115% has boosted its demand outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, corrects to near 101.50 ahead of the US trading session on Tuesday.
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); the major support at 7.1700 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, renewed downward momentum suggests 7.1700 is back in sight, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Silver, Platinum and Palladium initially rose after the tariff announcement yesterday, but subsequently also came under pressure in the wake of Gold, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 146.50/148.60 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, further USD strength is likely, but it could first trade in a range for a few days; the level to monitor is 149.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) jumps to near 1.3250 against the US Dollar (USD) during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as the US Dollar falls back after the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflationary pressures cooled down in April.
The price of Gold fell by up to 3.5%, or more than $100, to just over $3,200 per troy ounce following the news of the temporary lifting of most of the reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
USD/JPY consolidates near recent highs as the BoJ’s cautious tone and low market-implied hike expectations contrast with ongoing dollar strength, BBH FX analysts report.
The surprising announcement of a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China led to a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday. Brent rose by up to 4% to more than $66 per barrel, WTI to $63.6 per barrel, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Slight increase in momentum suggests Australian Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6350 against US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat.
The latest inflation figures were published in China over the weekend, reporting on price developments in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the annual price change remained negative for the third consecutive month at -0.1%.
Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3140 level vs the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained recovery can be expected. In the longer run, GBP is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Japan's current account surplus remained solid in March. At JPY 3.7 trillion, this was slightly lower than in February. However, when calculated over the last twelve months, a new all-time high of JPY 30.4 trillion was reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
FX markets are settling down after a lively Monday. It made sense for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sell off the hardest as Washington policy was re-appraised.
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said at an event in the London School of Economics (LSE) on Tuesday that markets “should not assume that the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve.”
GBP/USD is retreating after rejection near 1.3500, with bearish momentum reinforced by MACD crossover and a breach of short-term consolidation support. Next supports lie near 1.3070 and 1.3010, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
The worst of the US-China trade war is likely behind us, although we see twists and turns ahead. With a substantial reduction in tariffs, we now estimate a GDP impact of 0.6-1.0ppt from US tariffs.
It looks like a stroke of genius. Nobody thought it was possible, but the Donald Trump administration has made it. In just one weekend of negotiations, tariffs between the US and China were reduced by 115 percentage points each.
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EUR/JPY loses ground after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 164.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone.
Gold (XAU/USD) still has quite a long way to go back and test that all-time high at $3,500, currently trading near $3,256 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers parts from the 2.65% correction that took place on Monday after the US-China trade deal was announced.
At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated.
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The NZD/USD pair retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral outlook, with the pair consolidating within a rectangular range.
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