ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen ↑ then ↓, Kiwi ↑, Gold ↓↓↓

• Federal Reserve speakers Friday include Barkin and Daly
• RBNZ 2 year inflation expectations 2.29% (prior was 2.06%)
• Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez says inflation and economy slowing
• South Korea's finance ministry says the economy faces increasing" downward pressure
• The US says Vietnam's trade deficit is unsustainable and a major concern amid tariff talks
• European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane speaking Friday
• Bank of Japan Policy Board member Nakamura Toyoaki is speaking soon
• ICYMI: Wisconsin sells entire bitcoin ETF position after early bet on BlackRock fund
• Japan economy minister Akazawa: Govt will continue to demand review of U.S. tariffs
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1938 (vs. estimate at 7.2085)
• Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target for MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan to 660 from 620
• JP Morgan analysts expect Bitcoin to outperform gold for the rest of the year
• Singapore’s April exports surge 12.4%, beating expectations but outlook remains cautious
• Japan finmin Kato: Will seek to have a meeting with Bessent, discuss FX and other matters
• Canadian Prime Minister & Mexican President to strengthen economies against future shocks
• 75bp of Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts to come (Reuters poll)
• USD/JPY little changed after the economic contraction data from Japan, JPY up a little
• Japan Q1 GDp -0.2% q/q (expected -0.1%)
• Japan finance minister Kato says will discuss FX with Bessent
• FT: Trump administration split on timing of adding Chinese chipmakers to export blacklist
• New Zealand April Manufacturing PMI shows an uptick in expansion to 53.9 vs. prior 53.2
• HSBC modelling sees USD/JPY trading a 141 - 149 range (there's a but)
• Australia financial media reports that “Australia won’t join Trump trade war on China”
• U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary says not concerned about persistent increases in prices
• Japan, US to resume tariff talks after G7 summit as Akazawa plans Washington visit
• South Korea April export prices have shown their slowest rise y/y since December 2023
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dip in PPI pulls down USD/JPY
• JP Morgan CEO Dimon says US recession risks remain high amid deficits and inflation
• Major indices close mixed. NASDAQ lower as Meta-reverses course on AI problems
• Trade ideas thread - Friday, 16 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

From Japan today we had preliminary data for Q1 GDP. This was very poor data, showing the tenuous nature of Japan’s economic recovery. The annualised q/q came in at -0.7%, its first fall for a year. Exports fell q/q, even as almost every other country on the planet were ramping these higher ahead of US tariffs.

The yen gained after the data, with a strong deflator result, +3.3% y/y. The Deflator in this data is an indicator of inflation. USD/JPY dealt down to circa 145.00. It bounced back from there to highs above 145.40 and is around 145.30 as I post.

News flow was light and of little impact.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand published the results of its Q2 inflation expectations survey. Both 1- and 2-year inflation expectations rose, helping an already climbing NZD/USD to climb higher. NZD/USD rose from lows around 0.5865 to highs above 0.5900 as I post.

The USD was a little weaker also against EUR, AUD, GBP, CAD.

Gold dropped back to under USD3210.