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TRY: Reversal all over again – Commerzbank
The situation surrounding the Turkish lira is, once again, deteriorating, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.
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Pound Sterling starts the week on a strong note
The Pound Sterling (GBP) outperforms its peers at the start of the week despite firm expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in the policy meeting on May 8.
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RUB: Not really dovish – Commerzbank
Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key rate unchanged on Friday as had been unanimously expected.
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RussianFederation
CentralBanks
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Trump sees no red line that would change tariff policy - The Atlantic
This is regarding financial markets behaviour
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CAD: Canada goes to the polls – ING
Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Technical Analysis
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BOC
USDCAD
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GBPUSD consolidates around cycle highs as the momentum wanes
The overstretched dollar shorts might be in danger in case we get more positive news on the tariffs front
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USD/JPY: Rebound finds resistance – OCBC
Rebound in USD/JPY continued as the Bessent-Kato meeting saw no mention of FX levels. Pair was last at 143.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USDJPY
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Banks
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We are still demanding a full removal of US tariffs, says Japan economy minister
Akazawa reaffirms that there is no change to Japan's position in negotiations
Politics
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European gas prices slide to 9-month lows – ING
In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a fourth straight session and fell around 4.9% day-on-day at one point in time to trade below EUR32/MWh (the lowest since July) on Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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USD: Positioning data shows a split in activity – ING
It's been a quiet start to the week in financial markets, with cross-market levels of volatility falling. There has not been too much tariff-related news over the weekend, although it does seem US consumers could soon start to feel the bite.
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Inflation expectations among US consumers – Commerzbank
It is looking less and less likely that the dramatic rise in long-term inflation expectations among US consumers, as measured by the University of Michigan for the second month in a row, is actually a random outlier – a measurement error. Fed Chair Jay Powell recently dismissed it as such.
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UK April CBI retailing reported sales -8 vs -41 prior
Latest data released by CBI - 28 April 2025
GBP
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DXY: Technical rebound on the daily charts – OCBC
Dollar Index (DXY) held on to recent gains amid relative calm (no fresh tariff angst). While tariff uncertainties linger, recent developments pointed to signs of de-escalation. DXY was last at 99.62 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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Oil: Crude sees modest gains – ING
The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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EUR: The ECB is sounding pretty dovish – ING
The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds pretty dovish, with some even happy to speculate over 50bp of rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Technical Analysis
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Banks
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Tariff policy risks empty shelves in the US – Commerzbank
The US president continues to insist that China's president recently called him. The Chinese side denies this. And the US Treasury Secretary also refuses to confirm it. We have long since entered a world in which a Chinese ministerial official can be trusted more than the US President.
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Gold looks heavy after Bessent and Rollins confirms trade deal offers are piling up
Gold price (XAU/USD) is ticking lower under some profit taking, trading around $3,290 at the time of writing on Monday.
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Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.
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Crude oil continues to consolidate around the key resistance zone
The OPEC+ production hikes weigh on the market but positive expectations on the trade negotiations front keeps the buyers optimistic
Oil
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WTI falls to near $62.50 due to potential Iranian crude, OPEC+ production increase
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading lower at around $62.70 per barrel during the European hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices continue to decline as progress in US-Iran nuclear talks raises the prospect of Iranian crude re-entering the market.
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What are the interest rate expectations for G8FX?
The market's pricing is barely changed since Friday as expectations consolidated while we await new information on the trade negotiations side
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EUR/USD drops ahead of US-Eurozone data-packed week
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1345 in North American trading hours on Monday.
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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA near 1.3900 resistance level
The USD/CAD pair gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.3890 during the European session on Monday. However, technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with the pair continuing to move lower within a clearly defined descending channel.
Technical Analysis
USDCAD
Majors
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The S&P 500 is testing a key trendline in a make or break moment
The S&P 500 pulled all the way back to a key trendline as de-escalation kept favouring the upside
S&P Futures
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NZD/USD depreciates to near 0.5950 due to improved US Dollar sentiment
The NZD/USD pair continues to weaken for the second consecutive session, trading near 0.5940 during Monday’s European session. The decline is largely driven by a strengthening US Dollar (USD) amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.
NZDUSD
Macroeconomics
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SNB total sight deposits w.e. 25 April CHF 451.1 bn vs CHF 448.3 bn prior
Latest data released by the SNB - 28 April 2025
CHF
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China continues to shut the door on Trump in the tariffs war
If Trump was trying to work an angle last week, China is not going to make it easy
Politics
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AUD/JPY trades below 92.00, edges lower due to RBA rate cut expectations
AUD/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, trading near 91.80 during early European hours on Monday.
AUDJPY
Crosses
Macroeconomics
Japan
Australia
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China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently
The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated on Monday that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump did not have a call recently.
China
TradeWar
UnitedStates
AUDUSD
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Forex Today: Markets remain calm to start week full of key data releases
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 28:
Currencies
Majors
EconomicIndicator
Commodities
Macroeconomics
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China's Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently
Same old denying on talks between US and China
USD
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European indices open a little higher to kick start the week
Slight gains at the open today
Stocks
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South Korea says no chance to reach trade deal with US before next presidential election
The next presidential election in South Korea will take place on 3 June
Politics
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EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.56, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.03.
India
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Market Outlook for the week of April 28th - May 2nd
The highlights of the week include the Australian inflation data, the BoJ monetary policy announcement and the U.S. labor market figures
JPY
AUD
USD
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Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.
Metals
Palladium
Commodities
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USD/CHF softens below 0.8300 amid US trade confusion
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8270 during the early European session on Monday. Trade-related uncertainties between the US and China and persistent geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF).
Majors
USDCHF
Macroeconomics
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Eurostoxx futures flat in early European trading
A more tentative mood ahead of the open later
Stocks
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What are the main events for today?
Nothing on the agenda today but keep an eye on tariff related headlines
market overview
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Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.19 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.97.
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