The price of Russian ESPO crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time at the beginning of the week, while the price of Urals fell towards $50 per barrel, the lowest price level since March 2023, according to Reuters, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
While deeply oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out; next support level is at 142.50. In the longer run, renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline; mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Further NZD strength is not ruled out, but it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785. In the longer run, upward momentum has increased, but NZD must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further, but the major resistance at 0.6290 still seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The US Dollar (USD) took another hit at the end of the week, after China retaliated with 125% tariffs on imports of US goods starting as soon as on April 12.
The euro surged to multi-year highs against the dollar as markets reversed optimism from the tariff pause and grew increasingly wary of political and institutional risks in the US.
Impulsive momentum suggests further GBP strength; it remains to be seen if 1.3100 is within reach today. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has shifted to positive; the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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The US Dollar (USD) plummeted during European trading hours on Friday, on news indicating China announced additional tariffs on the United States (US). On Thursday, the White House confirmed tariffs on China of 145%, higher than the 125% previously estimated.
A mad week for markets is ending with heavy losses for the dollar. The FX scorecard is speaking volumes; in G10, only the illiquid Norwegian krone is flat against the dollar since last Friday.
The current US tariff rate will drag China’s GDP growth lower by c.1.8ppt. Any further increases in tariffs are likely to have little impact on China’s growth. Another CNY 1.5-2.0tn of fiscal support is needed, supported by moderately loose monetary policy, Standard Chartered's economists report.
After closing the third consecutive day in positive territory on Wednesday, GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum and rises about 1% on the day at around 1.3100.
A break above 1.1275 could trigger further rally; the levels to monitor are 1.1350 and 1.1400. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to rally further; the levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD/JPY extends its losing momentum into the fourth consecutive day in European trading on Friday, having recorded its lowest level in seven months just above 142.00.
The Euro (USD) remains a key recipient of US Dollar (USD) outflows, and is currently trading around 1.125 after major overnight swings that saw it trade as high as 1.138.
After losing nearly 4% on the day on Thursday, USD/CHF continues to push lower on Friday and trades at its weakest level since September 2011 at around 0.8150.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that US President Donald “Trump's economic and financial agenda is the wrong path.”
The total number of clients of forex and contracts for differences (CFDs) broker Blackbull has now exceeded 400,000. However, it remains unclear how many of them are actively trading.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $923.74 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $918.60.
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