April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports.
Economics normally suffers from a painful deficiency: unlike biologists, physicists, psychologists, and other scientists, economists are generally unable to conduct experiments.
There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum; NZD is expected to edge higher and test 0.5920. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Late on Friday, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating one notch to Aa1, having had the US on a negative outlook for a year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD trades 0.85% higher to near 1.1290 during North American trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
A breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher, trading over 1% on Monday and hits $3,240 at the time of writing, while traders mull three main elements this Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive.
The Oil market managed a second consecutive week of gains, driven largely by tariff de-escalation. However, the market is in limbo this morning as it weighs what impact, if any, the US credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service will have on Oil.
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide on its key interest rate. The market is pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.85%.
Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade with an upward bias; any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.1225. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The USD/CAD pair is losing ground after registering gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The daily chart's technical analysis suggested a sustained bullish sentiment, as the pair continues to trade within the ascending channel pattern.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher against its major peers at the start of the week. The British currency moves higher ahead of the European Union (EU)-United Kingdom (UK) trade summit in London on Monday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, has retraced its recent gains from the previous session and is trading around 100.40 during the Asian hours on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $61.57 per barrel, down from Friday’s close at $61.92.
USD/CHF is retreating from gains made in the previous session, trading near 0.8360 during Asian hours on Monday. The decline follows a surprise downgrade of the US government's credit rating, which sparked renewed selling in the US fixed income market.
The EUR/USD pair ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a softer US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bullish conviction and remains below the 1.1200 round figure through the Asian session.
The Indian Rupee (INR) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the USD/INR pair halting its five-day winning streak. However, fresh USD demand from importers and ongoing foreign fund outflows continue to weigh on the INR.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Monday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, though it seems to struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 0.5900 mark.
Gold price (XAU/USD) holds gains after experiencing volatility, trading near the upper end of its daily range around the $3,250 region during the European hours on Monday.
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