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Fed's Goolsbee: Rates could come down if tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that they could return to a situation where interest rates could come down if tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise, per Reuters.
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Crude Oil faces CTA headwinds as OPEC+ tests market resilience – TDS
Crude markets only have a very narrow path towards higher prices. In the imminent term, CTA selling activity will weigh on price action into the OPEC meeting.
Oil
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Canada: BoC to extend the pause – Standard Chartered
BoC to keep the policy rate on hold at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). With the policy rate at neutral, BoC has been unwilling to ease more unless growth goes further south.
BOC
Banks
Canada
USDCAD
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NZD/USD aims to revisit 0.6000 as Trump’s tariff policy ban batters US Dollar
The NZD/USD pair advances to near 0.5990 during North American trading hours on Thursday after recovering initial losses.
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Fxstreet
CTAs poised to drive Gold higher – TDS
CTAs will still buy Gold regardless of any scenario this coming week. We expect imminent algo buying activity to persist and accelerate into NFP, potentially tallying up to a massive +30% of algos' max size, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Banks
Gold
XAUUSD
Metals
Commodities
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USD/INR Price Forecast: US Dollar bulls battle for control at 85.41
The Indian Rupee (INR) is showing signs of stability against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair trading near 85.41. This level reflects consolidation within a broader correction range following the volatile price action in May.
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US pending home sales for April tumble -6.3% versus -1.0% estimate
US pending home sales for April 2025
USD
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US flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate came in at -0.2%
According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the advanced GDP Growth Rate is expected to have contracted by 0.2% in the January-March period. The readings show a marked pullback from the prior quarter’s 2.4% expansion.
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WH Navarro on Bloomberg: There is no question, this is an economic emergency.
Navarro on Bloomberg
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US: Initial Jobless Claims increased to 240K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance climbed to 240K for the week ending May 24, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print came in above initial estimates and the previous week's revised tally of 226K (from 227K).
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US Q1 2nd estimate GDP -0.2% vs -0.3% expected
The second look at USA growth numbers for the first quarter of 2025
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US initial jobless claims 240K vs 230K expected
The weekly US initial jobless claims and continuing claims data
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Reuters poll: ECB to cut rate to 2.00% on June 5
Reuters poll on ECB
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WH Economic Adviser Hassett: Confident in success of tariff ruling appeal
In an interview with Fox Business Network on Thursday, Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said that he is confident in the success of the tariff ruling appeal, per Reuters.
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We are confident in success of tariff ruling appeal - Hassett
White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, says that judges' decision on tariffs will be overturned
Politics
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Markets continue to digest court ruling on Trump tariffs
Forex news from the European morning session on May 29, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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Fxstreet
Mexican Peso regains confidence as US Dollar bulls retreat ahead of US Inflation data
The Mexican Peso (MXN) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday after a combination of weak US employment data, the release of Banxico Minutes and renewed selling pressure on the Greenback limited earlier gains.
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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejection at 0.8345 brings 0.8265 support into focus
The US Dollar rallied earlier on Thursday, to find sellers at the 0.8345 area.
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JPY recovering into NA session with focus on trade talks – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is underperforming the G10 currencies with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive recovery from earlier sentiment-driven losses related to headlines on trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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USD/JPY falls back to near 145.00 as USD gives up gains
The USD/JPY pair retreats to near 144.90 during European trading hours on Thursday after facing stiff resistance above 146.00.
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GBP unchanged within broader bull trend ahead of BoE Gov. speech – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is also entering Thursday’s NA session flat vs. the USD, trading in tandem with its G10 peers and responding headline risk related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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EUR flat vs. USD following swift recovery of trade-related losses – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session nearly flat against the US Dollar (USD), having recovered from sizeable Asian session losses driven by headlines related to trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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CAD edges marginally higher on latest twist in tariff saga – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has picked up—marginally—on the back of the latest twist in the tariff saga but the gains are minimal relative to yesterday’s close.
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USD eases after brief advance on tariff block – Scotiabank
Late yesterday, a US court blocked a large part of President Trump’s tariff plans, striking down reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs.
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India trade minister official says trade talks with US are progressing well
Adds he expects a good outcome soon
Politics
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Fxstreet
USD/CAD retreats from highs, approaching 1.3800 ahead of the US GDP release
The US Dollar has given away all the ground taken after the court ruling against US trade tariffs, and is trading with moderate losses ahead of the US Session opening, as the Canadian Dollar draws support from the rebound in Oil prices.A US federal court ruled on Wednesday that the US Congress has t
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AUD/USD holds support amid Capex miss, RBA cuts eyed – BBH
AUD/USD is holding above key support at 0.6400 but faces near-term resistance between 0.6500-0.6540, BBH FX analysts report.
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Gold advances as US Dollar declines after US court blocks Trump's tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) claws back the majority of its initial losses and recovers to near $3,320 in Thursday’s North American trading session from the weekly low of $3,245 posted earlier in the day.
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USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 – UOB Group
Increase in momentum is likely to lead to US Dollar (USD) advance, potentially to 7.2130. In the longer run, for now, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Banks
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USD/JPY: Resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to strengthen; the significant resistance at 147.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests further USD upside; too early to tell whether 147.50 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USDJPY
Banks
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NZD/USD: Expected to continue to trade sideways – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to continue to trade sideways, most likely in a range of 0.5925/0.5975. In the longer run, upward momentum has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5900 and 0.6000 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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AUD/USD: Chance to edge below 0.6400 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could edge below 0.6400 against US Dollar (USD); the next support at 0.6380 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a range of 0.6380/0.6485, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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CHF: Swiss franc stays surprisingly bid – ING
One might have expected EUR/CHF to trade a little higher on this tariff ruling and the decent rally in equity markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Banks
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EURCHF
Switzerland
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Fxstreet
NZD/USD: Bias to buy dips – OCBC
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. However, the tone of the meeting suggests a shift away from a dovish stance.
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Banks
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Dollar gains abate as traders digest what's next for Trump tariffs
The greenback has seen gains dissipate in European morning trade
USD
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Fxstreet
GBP: Sterling performs well – ING
It's interesting to see EUR/GBP still trading quite softly despite some better news on global trade, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Banks
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Fxstreet
GBP/USD: Expected to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade with a downward bias toward 1.3395 vs US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely.
GBPUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
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USD: Trade wars can be messy – ING
FX markets should focus on two themes today: the US Court of International Trade ruling that the majority of President Trump's tariffs are illegal, and insights from the minutes of the 7 May FOMC meeting, which suggest that dollar selling in April was driven by hedging rather than outright sales of
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Banks
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Fxstreet
AUD/USD bounces up as the Dollar rally loses steam and approaches 0.6450 resistance area
The Aussie Dollar bounced up right above the 0.6400 psychological level on Thursday and is trading 0.30% higher on the day, with a retest of the 0.6450 resistance area on the cards, as the US Dollar rally loses steam.The Greenback appreciated across the board during late Wednesday and Thursday’s Asi
AUDUSD
Currencies
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