Bank of America highlights softer card spending data ahead of next week's retail sales

The final piece of the Fed puzzle next week could be a meaningful one if Bank of America is right.

The retail sales report is due on Tuesday, just one day ahead of the FOMC decision. The consensus for the headline right now is +0.1% but they expect it to be soft, including a 'control group' reading at 0%.

Using their own data, they saw total card spending per household was down 0.7% m/m in May.

"Spending on home improvement, groceries, and general merchandise was particularly soft in May," BofA noted.

Bank of America also sees signs of weakness ahead:

Compared to June 2024, all four big ticket spending expectations we track have declined y/y, consistent with our observations in May. Plans to buy New Appliance declined the most y/y, dropping from 35% LY to 31% this month. Plans to buy a New Home declined modestly from 24% LY to 22% this year but upticked sequentially.

Is the economy finally starting to slow?

h/t @neilksethi