For what it is worth, the

  • US leading index for March fell -0.7% versus -0.5%.
  • Prior month -0.2% versus -0.3%
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead. March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: 1) consumer expectations dropped further, 2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and 3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.” - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

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Source: Forex Live