• Uncertainty is weighing on investment.
  • Soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment.
  • Global economic integretion is now stalled, if not reversing; last few weeks have seen an acceleration in pace and scale of change.
  • Even if a full-blown trade war turns out to be short-lived, uncertainty effects will persist for some time.
  • Monetary policy must adapt to the new nature of supply shocks generated by geoeconomic fragmentation.
  • Given effects of size, scale and more persistent nature of fragmentation-induced shocks, and their impact on prices, monetary policy responses will need careful calibration.
  • Threats of inflation de-anchoring, from both above and below, warrant forceful and persistent responses.
  • Interest rates remains default policy lever in our toolbox; when constrained by lower bound, other tools such as targeted lending and balance sheet operations have their uses.

He's suggesting a more careful approach to interest rates adjustments.

ECB's Makhlouf
ECB's Makhlouf
Source: Forex Live