The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is getting pulled along with the broader sell-off in the USD and is notching up another decent weekly gain—its fourth on the trot and the largest since late 2022.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 2.7% on a yearly basis in March, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. This reading followed the 3.2% increase recorded in February and came in below the market expectation of 3.3%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced from a fresh three-year low of 99.02 achieved on Friday amid escalating tensions between China and the United States (US). The index currently hovers around 99.70, sharply down for a second consecutive day.
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said that their job is to make sure that inflation expectations don't rise, per Reuters.
On Friday, Beijing dramatically ramped up tariffs on US imports to 125%, striking back at President Trump's move to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%. This countermeasure has ramped up the tension in a trade war that now threatens to upend global supply chains.
The tariff conflict triggered by US President Trump and the resulting increase in risk aversion also put pressure on the Platinum and Palladium prices.
The March data on gold ETFs published by the World Gold Council this week showed a continued high buying interest among ETF investors, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The OPEC production surveys by Reuters and Bloomberg again showed a considerable discrepancy for March, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The price of Russian ESPO crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time at the beginning of the week, while the price of Urals fell towards $50 per barrel, the lowest price level since March 2023, according to Reuters, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
While deeply oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out; next support level is at 142.50. In the longer run, renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline; mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Further NZD strength is not ruled out, but it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785. In the longer run, upward momentum has increased, but NZD must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further, but the major resistance at 0.6290 still seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The US Dollar (USD) took another hit at the end of the week, after China retaliated with 125% tariffs on imports of US goods starting as soon as on April 12.
The euro surged to multi-year highs against the dollar as markets reversed optimism from the tariff pause and grew increasingly wary of political and institutional risks in the US.
Impulsive momentum suggests further GBP strength; it remains to be seen if 1.3100 is within reach today. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has shifted to positive; the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The US Dollar (USD) plummeted during European trading hours on Friday, on news indicating China announced additional tariffs on the United States (US). On Thursday, the White House confirmed tariffs on China of 145%, higher than the 125% previously estimated.
A mad week for markets is ending with heavy losses for the dollar. The FX scorecard is speaking volumes; in G10, only the illiquid Norwegian krone is flat against the dollar since last Friday.
The current US tariff rate will drag China’s GDP growth lower by c.1.8ppt. Any further increases in tariffs are likely to have little impact on China’s growth. Another CNY 1.5-2.0tn of fiscal support is needed, supported by moderately loose monetary policy, Standard Chartered's economists report.
After closing the third consecutive day in positive territory on Wednesday, GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum and rises about 1% on the day at around 1.3100.
A break above 1.1275 could trigger further rally; the levels to monitor are 1.1350 and 1.1400. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to rally further; the levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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