The Euro (USD) remains a key recipient of US Dollar (USD) outflows, and is currently trading around 1.125 after major overnight swings that saw it trade as high as 1.138.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, continues its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 100.40 during Friday’s Asian trading hours.
The USD/CAD pair remains weak near 1.3965 during the early European session on Friday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid persistent concerns over the global and US economies.
The AUD/JPY pair extended its downside during Thursday’s session, retreating toward the 90.00 area as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the pair. Price action is unfolding within a range defined by 88.914 and 91.110, with sellers maintaining control as the session heads into Asia.
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside momentum during Thursday’s session, climbing toward the 0.5700 area after posting notable intraday gains. The pair remains comfortably positioned within its daily range of 0.56282 to 0.57656, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in the short term.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 101 area in Thursday’s session, falling further after failing to hold recovery momentum from earlier in the week. The move comes as new tariff measures confirmed by the White House send the effective rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%.
The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Thursday’s session after the European close, pushing toward the 1.1200 area and posting one of its strongest daily gains in recent months.
So the US paused reciprocal tariff action for 90 days on non-retaliating countries but maintained a base line 10% tariff just hours after imposing aggressive levies on its major trading partners. China gets whacked with 125% tariffs though, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up about 0.6% vs. the USD and a mid-performer among its G10 peers, climbing back into the 1.29-1.30 congestion range that had prevailed ahead of last week’s tariff turbulence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session with an impressive 1.1% gain, climbing back toward the upper end of its one-week range and threatening a break to levels last seen in October.
EURUSD retraced higher in a volatile session, testing key moving averages. Traders eyeing 1.1106 level for next move, with potential rotation back towards 100/200 hour MA if sellers prevail.
USD/JPY jumped sharply to 148.27 overnight as safe haven trades unwind after Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. We had cautioned for the risk of a short squeeze in our report yesterday. Pair was last at 145.78 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
EUR/NOK's recent breakout attempt above 12.05 was short-lived, as strong resistance pushed the pair back into its consolidation range. Key support at 11.68 now becomes critical for the near-term outlook, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded 4% from its lows overnight after Trump pauses tariffs on most nations for 90 days. Pair was last at 0.6170 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Despite Trump raising tariffs on China to 125% overnight, USD/CNH fell as broader sentiment improved. Trump unexpectedly paused higher tariffs on 56 nations (excluding China) for 90 days.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5695 vs US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, weakness in NZD has stabilised; it is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/GBP briefly traded to 0.8650 yesterday – a move which seems to coincide with the sell-off in UK gilts. That UK gilts even underperformed US Treasuries is quite remarkable and probably very unnerving for the UK's Debt Management Office, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Markets are watching closely as China weighs a response to the latest US tariff hike. With limited trade impact, the focus shifts to potential currency movements and consumer strain, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Sharp rally in Australian Dollar (AUD) seems to have enough momentum to test 0.6195 before leveling off. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The clean take-away from the pause in the worst of the tariffs was a re-assessment of global trade prospects on the view that perhaps tariffs were more transactional after all, and US equity losses are indeed proving a brake on the President's desires to rewire the global trading systems, ING’s FX a
Pound Sterling (GBP) is still trading in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.2750 and 1.2870. In the longer run, GBP could decline further; it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and retreats slightly after touching a fresh weekly high, around the $31.30 region during the early European session on Thursday.
Sharp decline in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) has room to test 1.0895 before stabilisation is likely; any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.0850.
The EUR/USD market is sometimes referred to as a 'washing machine' where global trade and portfolio flows meet and cancel each other out, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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