US headline CPI rose 2.4% y/y in line with some forecasts but below the 2.5% consensus and down from 2.9% prior. Monthly CPI was up 0.1% (unrounded +0.081%), also softer than expected. Core CPI increased 2.8% y/y (vs 2.9% expected) with a monthly gain of 0.1% (unrounded +0.130%), showing continued disinflation.

USDCHF
USDCHF technicals

Key drivers included declines in apparel (-0.4%), new vehicles (-0.3%), airfares (-2.7%), and hotel rates (-0.1%). Core services slowed to +0.2%, while owners’ equivalent rent remained at +0.3%. Real weekly earnings rose 0.3%.

The USD dropped sharply, stocks moved higher and yields lower. Rate cut expectations increased to 77 bps over the next year. The Fed is likely to stay cautious ahead of the July 9 tariff decision.

Technically, the USDCHF is under pressure as price moves decisively below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, currently between 0.8208 and 0.8213. The bearish bias strengthens while the pair remains below this dynamic resistance zone. On the downside,the pair moved briefly below a swing area floor between 0.8191 and 0.8212, but could not sustain downside momentum. The price is back between that swing area as the traders battle it out.

With momentum favoring the downside, a move below 0.8191 would open the door to deeper declines, while a push back above the moving averages would disappoint sellers, and shift the bias more in the buyers favor - at least in the short term.

Key levels to watch:

  • Resistance: 0.8208–0.8213 (100/200-hour MAs), then 0.8249 (ceiling from last week).

  • Support: 0.8191, then 0.8169 (swing low from Wednesday and Thursday), 0.8155 (low from last week)

Source: Forex Live