US Dollar (USD) could edge higher vs Chinese Yuan (CNH), but any advance is unlikely to break above 7.3350. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived price action has resulted in a mixed outlook; USD is likely to trade between 7.2430 and 7.3700 for now.
Last week after business hours on Friday, Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade of outlook on Hungary’s sovereign debt from stable to negative. S&P already rates the issuer at 'BBB-/A-3', the lowest within investment grade, which highlights the significance of a negative outlook from here.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 142.70/144.55 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD could continue to decline, but given the deeply oversold conditions, it remains to be seen if 139.55 is within reach, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Although the Norwegian inflation figures for March look a little better again after the significant upward surprise at the beginning of the year, Norges Bank is still likely to wait until June before lowering the key rate, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
The GBP/JPY pair rises to near 189.00 in Tuesday’s European session. The pair moves higher as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending February.
China’s preliminary trade data for metals, released yesterday, showed imports of unwrought Copper fell 1.4% YoY to 467kt in March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range vs US Dollar (USD), likely between 0.6270 and 0.6350. In the longer run, AUD is likely to trade with an upward bias, potentially testing the key resistance at 0.6390, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Where Trump is not willing to make concessions or give in, however, is on China. Here, the motto 'always more than you' seems to apply. The tariff spiral is in full swing, there are only a few exceptions, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
Obviously, there is a learning curve for the US president when he continues to backpedal on tariffs. But the damage is done, trust is destroyed. Trump may call all these actions “dealmaking”, but in my view he underestimates two things, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes.
In its monthly oil market report published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut the 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 730k barrels per day (b/d) from 1.03 million b/d.
The USD/CAD pair extends its decline for the fifth consecutive session, hovering around 1.3860 during European trading on Tuesday. Daily chart technical analysis highlights a dominant bearish trend, with the pair trending lower within a descending channel formation.
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index declined sharply to -14 in April from 51.6 in March, missing the market estimate of 9.3 by a wide margin.
Outlook for Pound Sterling (GBP) has shifted to positive vs US Dollar (USD); the technical level to watch is 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar ) sell-off seen over the past few sessions showed tentative signs of stabilisation. DXY was last at 99.66 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Oil prices rose marginally higher yesterday despite OPEC trimming demand estimates. ICE Brent settled just below US$65/bbl. The market is digesting fast-moving policy developments on the tariff front, while balancing them with nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
Yesterday's speech from Fed's Governor Christopher Waller summarised perfectly the current outlook while also providing the likely reaction under two possible scenarios
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1280 and 1.1400 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, further EUR strength is not ruled out, but it may first range-trade for a couple of days, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD/CHF moves sideways after registering losses in the previous three successive sessions, hovering around 0.8150 during the European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair remains within striking distance of the 0.8099 mark—its lowest level since September 2011—briefly touched on April 11.
US equities and bonds had a good Monday, but considering the width of Trump’s announced exemptions from China’s tariffs, the move is well short of exceptional. Markets retain a substantial risk premium attached to US assets, including the dollar.
Euro (EUR) bulls paused overnight, ahead of ZEW survey, industrial production data today, current account (Wednesday) and ECB meeting (Thursday). Pair was last at 1.1357 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
The German ZEW surveys published today are the first activity indicators to be released in the eurozone since 'liberation day'. Remember that respondents are financial market experts, not business managers like the Ifo.
Inflation in Canada, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 2.3% on a yearly basis in March from 2.6% in February, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3% following the 1.1% increase recorded in February.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances against its major peers, except antipodeans, on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending February.
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