• Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs.
  • We have not seen particular inflation surprises.
  • Labour market has loosened somewhat.
  • Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February.
  • Path of slowing pay growth is intact.

The UK continues to have the highest core inflation rate among the major economies.

BoE's Bailey
BoE's Bailey
Source: Forex Live