NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) posted record first-quarter revenue of $44.1 billion on Wednesday, exceeding analyst expectations despite absorbing a $4.5 billion charge related to new U.S. export restrictions on its China-bound H20 chips.

NVIDIA shares closed yesterday’s session at $134. In Thursday’s premarket trading, however, they are up more than 5%, reaching $142, the highest level in three months. Moreover, NVIDIA shares predictions from two independent analysts suggest the stock could soon surge by 35%, potentially hitting an all-time high of $185.

NVIDIA News: NVDA Reports Record Q1 Revenue Despite $4.5 Billion China Export Hit

NVIDIA reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, surpassing the $0.93 consensus estimate, while revenue of $44.06 billion topped the expected $43.31 billion for a three-month period ended April 27, 2025. However, the company's guidance for the current quarter of approximately $45 billion fell short of analyst projections of $45.9 billion, primarily due to the ongoing impact of China export controls.

The company's data center division, which includes artificial intelligence chips and related components, generated $39.1 billion in revenue during the quarter, representing a 73% increase from the same period last year and accounting for 88% of total revenue. This performance underscored the continued strong demand for AI infrastructure globally.

"Global demand for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure is incredibly strong," CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement. "AI inference token generation has surged tenfold in just one year, and as AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI computing will accelerate."

Large cloud service providers accounted for just under half of the data center unit's revenue, while networking products contributed $5 billion in sales. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that Microsoft has "deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs and is expected to ramp to hundreds of thousands" of the company's GB200 product.

NVIDIA Q1 FY26 Revenue by Market Platform

China Export Controls Create Significant Impact

The quarter's results were significantly affected by new U.S. government export licensing requirements for NVIDIA's H20 processors destined for China, announced on April 9. The company incurred a $4.5 billion charge related to excess inventory and purchase obligations for the specialized chips, which were designed primarily for the Chinese market.

Prior to the export restrictions, H20 product sales totaled $4.6 billion in the first quarter, and NVIDIA was unable to ship an additional $2.5 billion worth of H20 revenue during the period. The company's gross margin of 61% would have reached 71.3% excluding the China-related charge.

"The H20 export ban ended our Hopper data center business in China," Huang told investors during an earnings call, describing the $50 billion Chinese AI chip market as "effectively closed to U.S. industry."

Strong Performance Across Other Segments

Despite the China headwinds, NVIDIA's other business segments showed robust growth. The gaming division achieved record revenue of $3.8 billion, up 42% year-over-year and 48% from the previous quarter, driven by strong sales of the company's new Blackwell architecture chips.

The automotive and robotics division reported 72% annual growth to $567 million, attributed to increased sales of self-driving car chips and software. Professional visualization revenue grew 19% to $509 million, boosted by broader adoption of Ada RTX workstation GPUs.

Net income for the quarter reached $18.8 billion, or $0.76 per share, compared to $14.9 billion, or $0.60 per share, in the same period last year. Excluding the H20-related charges and tax impacts, adjusted earnings per share would have been $0.96.

How High Can NVIDIA Stock Go? Analyst Outlook Remains Positive

Despite the China challenges, Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic price targets for NVIDIA shares. Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating with a $185 price target on Thursday, citing resolution of previous concerns about Blackwell inventory issues and noting that multiple hyperscalers are ramping up to 1,000 NVL72 units per week.

Bernstein Research also maintains its bullish stance on NVIDIA with an Outperform rating and $185 price target, representing significant upside potential from current levels. Analyst Stacy Rasgon emphasized that despite the challenges from China export restrictions, NVIDIA's valuation has become increasingly attractive, trading at approximately 25 times forward earnings, near decade-low levels.

DA Davidson raised its price target to $135 from $120 while maintaining a neutral stance, acknowledging that uncertainty surrounding NVIDIA's China business remains a key factor for the stock's performance.

NVIDIA Shares Predictions Table

The company also announced it would pay a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share on July 3 to shareholders of record as of June 11. During the quarter, NVIDIA spent $14.1 billion on share repurchases and paid $244 million in dividends.

Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects second-quarter revenue of $45 billion, plus or minus 2%, with the guidance reflecting an approximately $8 billion loss in H20 revenue due to export control limitations. The company projects GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 71.8% and 72.0%, respectively, as it works toward achieving mid-70% gross margins later this year.

NVIDIA Stock Price FAQ

Is Nvidia Stock Expected to Rise?

Yes, Nvidia stock is widely expected to rise according to multiple analyst forecasts and market indicators. The consensus among Wall Street analysts shows strong bullish sentiment, with 64 analysts giving NVIDIA a consensus rating of Buy. Out of 42 analysts covering NVIDIA, 37 have rated it a “Strong Buy,” demonstrating overwhelming confidence in the stock's upward trajectory.

Is Nvidia Share a Good Buy?

NVIDIA shares are considered a strong buy by the majority of analysts, though with some important caveats. The stock receives overwhelmingly positive ratings from Wall Street, with 42% of analysts recommending a Strong Buy and 41% recommending Buy. The average analyst price target of $164 represents about 25% upside from recent trading levels.

What Is the Nvidia Forecast for 2025?

NVIDIA's 2025 forecast shows continued strong growth despite some headwinds from China export restrictions. For the second quarter of fiscal 2026, the company expects revenue of $45.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, though this reflects an approximately $8.0 billion loss in H20 revenue due to export control limitations.

Does Nvidia Have a Good Future?

NVIDIA's long-term future appears exceptionally promising, driven by its leadership position in multiple high-growth technology sectors. The company is positioned at the center of several transformative trends including artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and edge computing.