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NZD/USD is on the downside – UOB Group
The risk for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is on the downside vs US Dollar (USD), but any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5835/0.5900.
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US April NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 94.5 expected
Latest data released by NFIB - 13 May 2025
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Oil prices benefit from easing of trade conflict – Commerzbank
The surprising announcement of a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China led to a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday. Brent rose by up to 4% to more than $66 per barrel, WTI to $63.6 per barrel, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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AUD/USD: Major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
Slight increase in momentum suggests Australian Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6350 against US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat.
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CNY: Still facing the threat of deflation – Commerzbank
The latest inflation figures were published in China over the weekend, reporting on price developments in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the annual price change remained negative for the third consecutive month at -0.1%.
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GBP: Holding onto gains – ING
Today's UK labour market data has had no discernible impact on Pound Sterling (GBP), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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GBP/USD: Major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3140 level vs the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained recovery can be expected. In the longer run, GBP is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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JPY: A sound investment – Commerzbank
Japan's current account surplus remained solid in March. At JPY 3.7 trillion, this was slightly lower than in February. However, when calculated over the last twelve months, a new all-time high of JPY 30.4 trillion was reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
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USD: April CPI print should keep the dollar supported – ING
FX markets are settling down after a lively Monday. It made sense for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sell off the hardest as Washington policy was re-appraised.
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BoE’s Pill: Should not assume MPR forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said at an event in the London School of Economics (LSE) on Tuesday that markets “should not assume that the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve.”
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Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Most recent article: Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
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BoE's Pill: I do worry about upside risks to inflation in upside inflation scenario
Comments from BoE's policymaker, Huw Pill
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GBP/USD pullback deepens after rejection at key resistance zone – Société Générale
GBP/USD is retreating after rejection near 1.3500, with bearish momentum reinforced by MACD crossover and a breach of short-term consolidation support. Next supports lie near 1.3070 and 1.3010, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
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US-China Trade: Stepping back from the brink – Standard Chartered
The worst of the US-China trade war is likely behind us, although we see twists and turns ahead. With a substantial reduction in tariffs, we now estimate a GDP impact of 0.6-1.0ppt from US tariffs.
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USD: Just a guy, trying to change the world – Commerzbank
It looks like a stroke of genius. Nobody thought it was possible, but the Donald Trump administration has made it. In just one weekend of negotiations, tariffs between the US and China were reduced by 115 percentage points each.
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EUR/JPY holds losses below 164.50 after release of ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys
EUR/JPY loses ground after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 164.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone.
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German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounds to 25.2 in May vs. 11.9 expected
The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rebounded to 25.2 in May from -14 in April, beatimh the market consensus of 11.9 by a wide margin.
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Gold price sees uptick ahead of US CPI and Tuesday's US trading session
Gold (XAU/USD) still has quite a long way to go back and test that all-time high at $3,500, currently trading near $3,256 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers parts from the 2.65% correction that took place on Monday after the US-China trade deal was announced.
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Germany May ZEW survey current conditions -82.0 vs -77.0 expected
Latest data released by ZEW - 13 May 2025
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Tariff pause provides short term relief – ING
Sentiment across risk assets improved with the pause in US-China tariffs, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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EUR/USD: Unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055 – UOB Group
Scope for Euro (EUR) to weaken further against the US Dollar (USD); any decline is unlikely to break the major support at 1.1055.
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EUR: Cheaper levels – ING
At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated.
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NZD/USD Price Forecast: Approaches the 0.5900 resistance level near nine-day EMA
The NZD/USD pair retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral outlook, with the pair consolidating within a rectangular range.
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What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?
Knowing the range of expectations is important, but the distribution of forecasts is another key input in the market's reaction
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ECB’s Makhlouf: Uncertainty is weighing on investment
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on Tuesday that “uncertainty is weighing on investment; soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment.”
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ECB's Makhlouf: Uncertainty is weighing on investment
Comments from the ECB policymaker, Gabriel Makhlouf
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Dollar holds slightly lower so far on the session
There's not too much in it as markets settle down after the big moves yesterday
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USD/CAD steadies above 1.3950 due to trade optimism, expects a rise in US inflation
USD/CAD is aiming for its fifth straight daily gain, hovering near 1.3970 during Tuesday’s European session.
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EUR/USD rises as US inflation cools down
EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1125 in Tuesday's North American session as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight pressure after the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.
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Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates gains ahead of key inflation data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, May 13:
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Oleh
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EUR/GBP remains above 0.8400 following UK Jobs data, ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys eyed
EUR/GBP halts its six-day losing streak, trading around 0.8420 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom (UK).
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BofA Fund Manager Survey: Fund Managers most underweight US Dollars since 2006
Some highlights from the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey
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China’s Foreign Ministry says fentanyl issue is not their responsibility
When asked on Tuesday whether fentanyl would be discussed in trade talks moving forward, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl issue is a US issue and not their responsibility.
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European indices lightly changed at the open today
A steadier mood as things settle down after the strong gains yesterday
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EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
ndian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.38, with the EUR/INR pair rising from its previous close at 94.11.
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China says fentanyl issue is not their responsibility
Interesting remarks from the Chinese foreign ministry
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US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish, key support level emerges near 100.00
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, retreats from its highest level since April 10 to 101.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday.
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China lifts ban on Boeing deliveries amid latest trade agreement
Bloomberg with the headline
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US Treausry Sec. Bessent: Talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that “talks in Geneva with China resulted in a mechanism to avoid escalation.”
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Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $951.00 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $949.90.
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