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A good bet on what the country is that is near a trade deal with the USA
Gasparino says the "word on Wall Street" is India or South Korea; one is more likely than the other
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USTR: Europe is not engaging well on tariff talks
This is from an interview on PBS
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Lutnick: I have a deal with a country, I'm just waiting for foreign parliament to approve
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on CNBC
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Fxstreet
Dow Jones rallies 300 points as soft US data fuels Fed rate cut bets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged over 300 points or 0.80% on Tuesday as softer-than-expected United States (US) economic data suggested the need for lower interest rates, as witnessed by the fall of US Treasury yields.
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Goldman: Revises USDCAD forecast lower
Goldman Sachs revises its USDCAD forecasts lower due to robust Canadian economic data and a supportive fiscal policy, expecting the Canadian dollar to outperform the U.S. dollar through 2025.
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USD/CHF holds ground after tariff relief, jobs data
The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.8900 during the North American session on Tuesday, benefiting from broader US Dollar (USD) strength.
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EUR/CAD: Euro steadies near 1.5800 as bullish trend holds despite mixed signals
The EUR/CAD pair was seen trading around the 1.5800 zone after the European session on Tuesday, showing little movement on the day after a slight decline. Despite the minor dip, the overall technical setup stays bullish.
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Oleh
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US Lutnick: Domestic car makers could move supply chains to the US
United States (US) Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick unveiled the White House’s plans for US auto makers.
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European indices close the day with mixed results. Italy's FTSE MIB up. Spain's Ibex down
European indices are mixed
Stocks
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Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants
Comments from the Commerce Secretary
Politics
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Oleh
Fxstreet
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bullish trend holds despite minor pullback after European session
The EUR/USD is flashing a bullish tone on Tuesday’s session after the European close, even as the pair slightly retraced from earlier highs and now trades near the mid-1.13 to low-1.14 area. Despite a modest dip during the session, broader technical signals continue to suggest upside potential.
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Oleh
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GBP/USD slips below 1.34 as risk rally fades, US data disappoints
The Pound Sterling (GBP) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) and falls after testing the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.3443. However, it fails to remain above 1.34 as it extends its losses. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3379, down 0.29%.
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Final Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate -2.7% vs -2.4% prior
Ex-gold estimate falls to -1.5%
USD
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USD/CAD continues to hold 1.3800 on slight optimism in US-China trade war de-escalation
The USD/CAD pair moves slightly higher to near 1.3855 during North American trading hours on Tuesday. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher, with investors turning slightly optimistic on de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China.
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Dallas Fed April service sector outlook index -19.4 vs -11.3 prior
Survey from the Dallas Fed
USD
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Goldman Sachs: Revising our USD/CAD forecasts lower
Goldman Sachs sees USD/CAD falling to 1.34
CAD
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China waives tariffs on US ethane imports – Reuters
Citing two sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported on Tuesday that China has decided to waive the 125% tariff on ethane imports from the United States imposed earlier this month.
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US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 86.0 in April
US consumer sentiment extended its decline in April, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 93.9 (revised from 92.9) to 86.0—its weakest reading since April 2020.
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JOLTS March job openings 7.192M vs 7.480M estimate
JOLTs job openings for March 2025
USD
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US April consumer confidence 86.0 vs 87.5 expected
April consumer confidence data from The Conference Board
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China waives ethane tariffs, as rumored last week
There were reports this was coming
Politics
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Fxstreet
USD/JPY holds above 142.00 ahead of US JOLTS Job Openings data, BoJ policy eyed
The USD/JPY pair ticks higher to near 142.30 during the North American session on Tuesday. The pair edges up as the US Dollar (USD) steadies ahead of the United States (US) JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
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US stock futures slide after Bessent
Some were hoping for more from the Treasury Secretary
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US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Trump creating strategic uncertainty in negotiations
United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is creating "strategic uncertainty" in trade negotiations, per Reuters.
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US February Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +4.5% y/y vs +4.7% expected
US February house price data
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Bessent: We want a combo of long-term tariff revenue and lower barriers
Comments from the Treasury Secretary
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US advanced wholesale inventories for March 0.5% versus 0.5% last month. Estimate 0.0%
US wholesale inventories for March 2025
USD
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US March advance goods trade balance -161.99BB vs -147.85B prior
US March trade balance data
USD
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Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets await Bessent and Lutnick
Forex news from the European morning session on Apr 29, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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Oleh
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JPY underperforming along with haven peer CHF – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened by 0.5% against the dollar, underperforming even fellow haven currencies, as markets brace for soft domestic data and upcoming US-Japan trade negotiations.
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India is prepared to offer the US the "forward most favoured nation" clause
This as sweetener in trade talks, sources say
Politics
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GBP fades modestly from fresh multiyear high – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and trading in tandem with EUR in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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ECB's Kazaks: Step-by-step rate cuts may continue
Comments from the ECB policymaker Kazaks
EUR
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EUR: ECB CPI expectations surprise w/ markets still pricing June cut – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $33.30, capitalizes on US-China trade uncertainty
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades higher to near $33.30 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal gains as investors start doubting whether de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China is underway.
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CAD steady despite election delivering another minority government – Scotiabank
The Canadian election results brought disappointment for pretty much everyone—the Liberals won, but are short of a majority, the Conservatives saw a jump in popular support but their leader failed to hold his own riding while both the NDP and Bloc lost heavily, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun
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AUD/USD retreats after failing to hold multi-month high – BBH
AUD/USD trimmed gains after testing resistance near 0.6450, as market attention shifts to upcoming Q1 CPI data.
Technical Analysis
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US Dollar erases gains after White House labels Amazon as hostile and political
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is having a knee jerk reaction on the back of comments from United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
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USD edges firmer on the day – Scotiabank
The USD is tracking a little higher on the day so far, reversing some of yesterday’s losses, following news that President Trump will make some concessions on auto tariffs due to come into effect on May 3rd.
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GBP/USD pulls back after multi-month high – BBH
GBP/USD slipped from recent highs as UK retail price data confirmed ongoing deflation in shop prices, despite a pickup in food inflation.
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Inflation
BOE
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