• Disinflation process in underway.
  • Some slack opened up in the labour market.
  • Risks to UK productivity are to the downside.
  • FX rates could be disinflationary if the trend persists.
  • On net, I think tariffs will be disinflationary for the UK, this was a factor in my rate decision.

After the US-China news, the policymakers will start to adjust their views and look at the more hawkish scenario.

BoE's Greene
BoE's Greene
Source: Forex Live