The surprising announcement of a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China led to a sharp rise in oil prices yesterday. Brent rose by up to 4% to more than $66 per barrel, WTI to $63.6 per barrel, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Slight increase in momentum suggests Australian Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6350 against US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6330 is unlikely to come under threat.
The latest inflation figures were published in China over the weekend, reporting on price developments in April. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the annual price change remained negative for the third consecutive month at -0.1%.
Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3140 level vs the US Dollar (USD) before a more sustained recovery can be expected. In the longer run, GBP is expected to weaken, but the major support at 1.3070 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Japan's current account surplus remained solid in March. At JPY 3.7 trillion, this was slightly lower than in February. However, when calculated over the last twelve months, a new all-time high of JPY 30.4 trillion was reached, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
FX markets are settling down after a lively Monday. It made sense for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc to sell off the hardest as Washington policy was re-appraised.
Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said at an event in the London School of Economics (LSE) on Tuesday that markets “should not assume that the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast is a direct endorsement of market interest rate curve.”
GBP/USD is retreating after rejection near 1.3500, with bearish momentum reinforced by MACD crossover and a breach of short-term consolidation support. Next supports lie near 1.3070 and 1.3010, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
The worst of the US-China trade war is likely behind us, although we see twists and turns ahead. With a substantial reduction in tariffs, we now estimate a GDP impact of 0.6-1.0ppt from US tariffs.
It looks like a stroke of genius. Nobody thought it was possible, but the Donald Trump administration has made it. In just one weekend of negotiations, tariffs between the US and China were reduced by 115 percentage points each.
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EUR/JPY loses ground after registering more than 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 164.20 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross remains subdued following the release of ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone.
Gold (XAU/USD) still has quite a long way to go back and test that all-time high at $3,500, currently trading near $3,256 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers parts from the 2.65% correction that took place on Monday after the US-China trade deal was announced.
At some points over the last six weeks, it felt like there was no point trying to pick a top in EUR/USD as overwhelming bearish sentiment on the dollar dominated.
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The NZD/USD pair retraces its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 0.5890 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a neutral outlook, with the pair consolidating within a rectangular range.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf said on Tuesday that “uncertainty is weighing on investment; soft data pointing to a significant cooling in business and consumer sentiment.”
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EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.1125 in Tuesday's North American session as the US Dollar (USD) faces slight pressure after the release of the softer-than-expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.
EUR/GBP halts its six-day losing streak, trading around 0.8420 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds ground following the release of mixed employment data from the United Kingdom (UK).
When asked on Tuesday whether fentanyl would be discussed in trade talks moving forward, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl issue is a US issue and not their responsibility.
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