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Kazakhstan puts OPEC+ cohesion to the test – Commerzbank
Given this situation, it is hardly conceivable that Kazakhstan will limit oil production as planned, let alone compensate for the current overproduction with larger production cuts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Energy
WTI
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Canada retail sales for February -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate
Canada retail sales data for February 2025
CAD
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JPY soft in context of trade headline-driven market – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.7% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Technical Analysis
BOJ
Japan
USDJPY
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Chinese Embassy: US and China are not having any talks on tariffs
Chinese Embassy exposing Trump
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OPEC+ countries consider significant increase in production for June as well – Commerzbank
According to a Reuters report, the eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts could also increase oil production more significantly in June, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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GBP soft but finds modest support – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is down a modest 0.3% and showing relative gains against nearly all the G10 currencies, once again trading in tandem with its peers on trade-related headlines while still lagging in terms of magnitude, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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Gold price surge fueled by strong ETF demand – Commerzbank
In the middle of next week, the World Gold Council (WGC) will publish its report on gold demand in the first quarter. This is likely to show that the sharp rise in the gold price in the first three months of the year was driven by strong investment demand.
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CAD eases modestly – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is marginally softer on the session but holding up better than its major currency peers to the USD’s broader rebound, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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Canada
BOC
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Brent rises above $68 on trade hopes, sanctions – Commerzbank
The price of Brent oil rose to more than $68 per barrel this week, reaching its highest level since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump at the beginning of April, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Oil
Banks
Energy
Brent
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WTI tumbles to near $62.00 on OPEC’s supply increase, potential demand concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, is down over 1% to near $62.00 during European trading hours on Friday.
Oil
OPEC
China
UnitedStates
WTI
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US Dollar milder ahead of filled geopolitical weekend
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades on the front foot, up around 0.40% on Friday at the time of writing.
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UnitedStates
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USD steadies, challenges remain – Scotiabank
Markets are ending the week on a steadier note. The USD is a little stronger, US equity futures slipping back after yesterday’s pop higher and US Treasurys are a little firmer.
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Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets less optimistic after Trump's interview with Time
Forex news from the European morning session on Apr 25, 2025
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Markets not enthusiastic about Trump's remarks
Two key comments could be weighing on the optimism
market overview
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CNY: Waiting for the PMIs – Commerzbank
Next week, China will release its official PMIs, which, unlike in other countries, are always released on the last day of the month rather than the first day of the following month.
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AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6380 as US Dollar bounces back
The AUD/USD pair falls sharply to near 0.6380 in Friday’s North American session. The Aussie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside recovery after a corrective move on Thursday.
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China
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Australia
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JPY: One-off effect lifts inflation – Commerzbank
The inflation rate for the Tokyo area rose to 3.5% in April, once again exceeding the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Rice prices rose sharply again in April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.
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Trump: China's Xi has called him
Time Magazine Interview
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Brent rebounds off $58.40 channel base – Société Générale
Brent crude has bounced from the lower limit of its downtrend but faces key resistance at $68.70–$70.50. A failure to break higher could trigger a pullback, with $65.30 and $62.30 as key support levels, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Technical Analysis
Oil
Brent
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RUB: CBR likely to signal rate cuts before end of year – Commerzbank
Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers.
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USD: So far, importers seem to be footing the bill – Commerzbank
As US-China tariff tensions escalate, early data suggest US importers are shouldering most of the burden, with little price relief from Chinese exporters. Despite sharp tariff hikes, consumer prices remain largely unaffected — for now.
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China
Banks
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DXY: Technical rebound is under way – OCBC
Relative calm continues to be observed this week amid Trump’s de-escalation. Trump continued to speak about how his administration was talking to China about trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.
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DollarIndex
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USD/JPY dodges the currency accord bullet – ING
On the subject of trade talks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's discussions with Japan and South Korea seem to be going well, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Technical Analysis
BOJ
Japan
USDJPY
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Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
Silver
Metals
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EUR/USD declines as USD rebounds despite contradictory remarks from Trump-China
EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1350 during North American trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair weakens due to a recovery move in the US Dollar (USD) on hopes of an improvement in trade relations between the United States (US) and China.
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SEO
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EUR: 1.1250 is the risk for EUR/USD – ING
The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower.
EURUSD
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Banks
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EUR/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC
Euro (EUR) continued to ease lower after hitting a more than 3Y high of 1.1570s. EUR was last at 1.1350 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
EURUSD
Banks
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USD: Some modest retracement – ING
The dollar is continuing its positive correlation with US equity markets and is edging higher. Investors seem to be taking positively the newsflow that US-China tariffs could be negotiated substantially lower.
Technical Analysis
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Banks
DollarIndex
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How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's developments?
Not much change in the pricing but expectations are moving into the less dovish side as positive tariff related news keep coming
market overview
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Gold sub $3,300 as Trump surprises markets on Friday about talks with China's Xi
Gold price (XAU/USD) is seeing more profit taking this Friday, and looks set to close off this week in the red around $3,300 at the time of writing.
TradeWar
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SEO
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Commodities
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USD/CAD sits near weekly top, just below 1.3900 ahead of Canadian Retail sales
The USD/CAD pair retains its positive bias through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades near the top end of the weekly range.
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SNB's Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel warned on Friday that an “economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out.”
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SNB's Schlegel: Economic slowdown in Switzerland cannot be ruled out
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel speaking
CHF
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Thai Commerce Minister: Thailand will eventually be able to negotiate tariffs with the US
The markets expectations continue to point towards eventually positive resolutions
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ECB’s Holzmann: Next policy steps are completely open
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Friday that “next policy steps are completely open.”
ECB
CentralBanks
EURUSD
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $33.50 due to easing US-China trade concerns
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches lower following two days of gains, trading around $33.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Friday. The metal’s safe-haven appeal weakens as reports emerge suggesting China may lift tariffs on certain US imports.
Silver
Metals
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Pound Sterling gauges ground against US Dollar on upbeat UK Retail Sales
The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to gain ground near the intraday low of 1.3280 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours after the release of the upbeat United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for March.
TradeWar
SEO
RetailSales
BOE
GBPUSD
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Chinese Foreign Ministry: China and US are not having any negotiations on tariffs
Commenting on the trade talks with the United States (US), China's Foreign Ministry clarified that “China and the US are not having any consultations or negotiations on tariffs.”
China
UnitedStates
TradeWar
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