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US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 48.7 in April vs. 48 expected
The business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector continued to contracted in April, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edging lower to 48.7 from 49 in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 48.
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US March construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate
US construction spending for March 2025
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US April ISM manufacturing 48.7 vs 48.0 expected
US April manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management
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April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim
The final reading from S&P Global on manufacturing for April
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Canada April S&P Global manfuacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.3 prior
Canadian factory survey from S&P Global
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US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rise to 241K vs. 224K expected
There were 241,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending April 26, according to data published Thursday by the United States (US) Department of Labor (DOL). This figure follows the previous week's print of 223,000 (revised from 222,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 224,000.
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Hassett on tariffs: I"m sure there will be news by the end of the day
Comment on CNBC
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WH Hassett: Tariff news expected by the end of the day
Hassett teasing some important (?) news on tariffs on CNBC
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US initial jobless claims 241K vs 224K expected
Initial claims for April 26 week
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WH Eco Adviser Hassett: Hopeful for progress with China on trade
Hassett in an interview with CNBC
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Initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing highlight the US economic calendar
A couple of indicators to watch
economic calendar
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USD's safe haven appeal fades as trade war backfires – Rabobank
Uncertainty may be a prevailing theme of the Trump presidency, but over the past month a number of lessons have been learnt which will likely have an ongoing impact on both the behaviour of politicians as well as investors.
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JPY pushes lower by dovish BoJ pulling back on tightening clarity – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.9% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies in response to the BoJ’s latest policy meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen stays pinned down after BOJ presser
Forex news from the European morning session on May 1, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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GBP quiet despite improvement in manufacturing PMI – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), outperforming all the G10 currencies with the exception of Euro (EUR), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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CAD slips modestly on firmer USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has slipped a little overnight after briefly probing sub-1.38 levels late yesterday. President Trump commented that PM Carney will visit Washington shortly and anticipated a 'great relationship' with Canada, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Two-year yields below federal funds rate is signal that Fed should cut rates
United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network on Thursday the fact that the two-year US Treasury bond yield is below the federal funds rate is a signal that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should cut rates, per Reuters.
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EUR recovers from sub-1.13 dip in quiet labour day trade – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged from Wednesday’s close, finding modest support following a short-lived dip below 1.1300, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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USD improves on stock rebound, trade hopes – Scotiabank
It feels like a fairly 'normal' day is unfolding across markets for once. US stock futures are higher on the back of solid earnings data from the tech sector while hopes for progress on trade are also supporting sentiment, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the economy: We expect to see GDP revised
Comments on the economy now
market overview
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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Refreshes almost three-week high near 145.00
The USD/JPY pair surges almost 0.8% to near 144.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating delay in plans of more interest rate hikes.
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US April Challenger layoffs 105.44k vs 275.24k prior
Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. - 1 May 2025
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Bessent: Strategic uncertainty is Trump's negotiating tactic
Nobody can know what you're doing when you don't know it yourself
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US Bessent: Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs
Comments from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
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Bessent: Trump-Zelensky meeting at Vatican went a long way to sealing minerals deal
Remarks by US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent
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AUD/USD falls to near 0.6380 despite robust Australian Trade Balance data
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.3% to near 0.6380 in Thursday’s European session. The Aussie pair trades back-and-forth around 0.6400 from over a week, with investors seeking clarity on when the United States (US)-China trade war will resolve.
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No relief for oil as price continues to tumble lower
A myriad of factors are weighing on the market at the moment
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A non-consensus trade opportunity as the selloff in crude oil gathers attention
Crude oil has been selling off hard as the focus has been on higher supply fears but a non-consensus trade opportunity on higher prices could be in the cards
Oil
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Will EU trade pivot away from the US? – Standard Chartered
The US has become the EU’s dominant trade partner in the last decade; tariffs could end that dominance. The UK offers the biggest near-term opportunity to boost trade flows via TCA renegotiation.
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USD: US economy contracts ahead of nonfarm payrolls report – MUFG
The US dollar has continued to rebound ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report for April. It has resulted in the dollar index rising back above the 100.00-level overnight although US dollar gains are mainly against the yen.
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EUR/USD slumps as US Dollar extends recovery after US Manufacturing PMI data
EUR/USD falls sharply to near 1.1285 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair declines as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major peers, extends its two-day recovery above the psychological level of 100.00.
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JPY: BoJ expresses more caution over delivering further rate hikes – MUFG
The yen has weakened overnight following the BoJ’s latest policy meeting. It has helped to lift USD/JPY back above 144.50 as the pair moves further above the low of 139.89 set on 22nd April.
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Japan
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Former US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Trump tariffs to have 'tremendously adverse' impact
Former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that US President Donald “Trump’s tariffs to have a 'tremendously adverse' impact on the economy.”
TradeWar
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Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
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CAD strengthens on trade optimism and BOC caution – BBH
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is outperforming most major currencies, BBH FX analysts report.
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BOJ holds rates, slashes forecasts – Yen falls – BBH
As was widely expected, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The decision was unanimous. The BOJ also reiterated its hawkish guidance that it will continue to raise the policy rate if the outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized.
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USD/JPY rises post-BoJ – Société Générale
USD/JPY pushed higher after the Bank of Japan held policy steady and delivered a dovish message, but we continue to expect gradual JPY appreciation as safe haven demand and domestic inflows persist despite near-term positioning risks, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD moves below $32.50 near 50-day EMA
Silver price (XAG/USD) is extending its losses for the third successive session, trading around $32.30 per troy ounce during the European session on Thursday.
Technical Analysis
Silver
Metals
Commodities
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Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Trump tariffs to have 'tremendously adverse' impact
Comments to the Financial Times
Politics
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