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The US dollar bids continue as yields rise and Fed cut pricing fades
US dollar at the highs of the day
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GBP/USD slips below 1.33 as US and UK manufacturing activity slumps
The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with most European markets closed during Labor Day. The release of manufacturing activity data on both sides of the Atlantic and United States (US) trade policies continued to drive the financial markets.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro holds losses near 1.1300
The EUR/USD pair is holding a bearish tone on Thursday, after retreating modestly following the European session. Price action is contained within a mid-range zone around the 1.1300 mark, reflecting a brief pause in upward momentum.
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers initial losses despite US Dollar showing strength
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers a majority of its early losses and returns to near $32.50 during North American trading hours on Thursday.
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US dollar continues to run higher alongside stock markets
Big bids
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US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is being replaced - reports
Waltz was responsible for setting up the Signal chat
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USD/CAD ticks higher around 1.3820 despite USD Index gains sharply
The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.3820 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair moves slightly higher despite the US Dollar (USD) having attracted significant bids after the release of the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
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Ukraine parliament expected to ratify minerals deal within a week
Senior US official cited by Reuters
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USD/JPY hits 145.00 fro the first time since April 8
Five big figures from the lows
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US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 48.7 in April vs. 48 expected
The business activity in the United States (US) manufacturing sector continued to contracted in April, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edging lower to 48.7 from 49 in March. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 48.
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US March construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate
US construction spending for March 2025
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US April ISM manufacturing 48.7 vs 48.0 expected
US April manufacturing survey from the Institute for Supply Management
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April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim
The final reading from S&P Global on manufacturing for April
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Canada April S&P Global manfuacturing PMI 45.3 vs 46.3 prior
Canadian factory survey from S&P Global
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US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rise to 241K vs. 224K expected
There were 241,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending April 26, according to data published Thursday by the United States (US) Department of Labor (DOL). This figure follows the previous week's print of 223,000 (revised from 222,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 224,000.
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Hassett on tariffs: I"m sure there will be news by the end of the day
Comment on CNBC
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WH Hassett: Tariff news expected by the end of the day
Hassett teasing some important (?) news on tariffs on CNBC
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US initial jobless claims 241K vs 224K expected
Initial claims for April 26 week
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WH Eco Adviser Hassett: Hopeful for progress with China on trade
Hassett in an interview with CNBC
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Initial jobless claims and ISM manufacturing highlight the US economic calendar
A couple of indicators to watch
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USD's safe haven appeal fades as trade war backfires – Rabobank
Uncertainty may be a prevailing theme of the Trump presidency, but over the past month a number of lessons have been learnt which will likely have an ongoing impact on both the behaviour of politicians as well as investors.
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JPY pushes lower by dovish BoJ pulling back on tightening clarity – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down 0.9% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all the G10 currencies in response to the BoJ’s latest policy meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen stays pinned down after BOJ presser
Forex news from the European morning session on May 1, 2025
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GBP quiet despite improvement in manufacturing PMI – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Thursday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), outperforming all the G10 currencies with the exception of Euro (EUR), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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CAD slips modestly on firmer USD – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has slipped a little overnight after briefly probing sub-1.38 levels late yesterday. President Trump commented that PM Carney will visit Washington shortly and anticipated a 'great relationship' with Canada, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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US Treasury Sec. Bessent: Two-year yields below federal funds rate is signal that Fed should cut rates
United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business Network on Thursday the fact that the two-year US Treasury bond yield is below the federal funds rate is a signal that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should cut rates, per Reuters.
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EUR recovers from sub-1.13 dip in quiet labour day trade – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged from Wednesday’s close, finding modest support following a short-lived dip below 1.1300, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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USD improves on stock rebound, trade hopes – Scotiabank
It feels like a fairly 'normal' day is unfolding across markets for once. US stock futures are higher on the back of solid earnings data from the tech sector while hopes for progress on trade are also supporting sentiment, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the economy: We expect to see GDP revised
Comments on the economy now
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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Refreshes almost three-week high near 145.00
The USD/JPY pair surges almost 0.8% to near 144.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating delay in plans of more interest rate hikes.
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US April Challenger layoffs 105.44k vs 275.24k prior
Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. - 1 May 2025
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Bessent: Strategic uncertainty is Trump's negotiating tactic
Nobody can know what you're doing when you don't know it yourself
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US Bessent: Need to see de-escalation with China on tariffs
Comments from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
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Bessent: Trump-Zelensky meeting at Vatican went a long way to sealing minerals deal
Remarks by US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent
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AUD/USD falls to near 0.6380 despite robust Australian Trade Balance data
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.3% to near 0.6380 in Thursday’s European session. The Aussie pair trades back-and-forth around 0.6400 from over a week, with investors seeking clarity on when the United States (US)-China trade war will resolve.
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No relief for oil as price continues to tumble lower
A myriad of factors are weighing on the market at the moment
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A non-consensus trade opportunity as the selloff in crude oil gathers attention
Crude oil has been selling off hard as the focus has been on higher supply fears but a non-consensus trade opportunity on higher prices could be in the cards
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Will EU trade pivot away from the US? – Standard Chartered
The US has become the EU’s dominant trade partner in the last decade; tariffs could end that dominance. The UK offers the biggest near-term opportunity to boost trade flows via TCA renegotiation.
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USD: US economy contracts ahead of nonfarm payrolls report – MUFG
The US dollar has continued to rebound ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report for April. It has resulted in the dollar index rising back above the 100.00-level overnight although US dollar gains are mainly against the yen.
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