• Prior month 86.0

  • Index Value: The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May 2025, up from 86.0 in April 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 87.0.

  • Present Situation Index: Declined to 135.9 from 133.5 in April 2025, indicating a slightly less optimistic view of current business and labor market conditions. Best since February

  • Expectations Index: Jumped to 72.8 from 54.4 in April 2025, reflecting improved consumer optimism about short-term prospects for income, business, and labor markets, though still below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risks. Best since February

  • Key Drivers:

    • The significant rise in the Expectations Index suggests growing consumer optimism, potentially driven by easing concerns over tariffs or economic policies following April's pessimism.

    • The Present Situation Index was less which indicates some caution regarding current economic conditions, possibly due to mixed signals in employment or business conditions.

  • Context:

    • This marks a reversal from five consecutive months of declining confidence, with April 2025 hitting a nearly five-year low of 86.0.

    • The 10.9-point increase from April to May was a notable surprise, beating expectations significantly.

  • Economic Implications:

    • The rebound in confidence could signal increased consumer spending, which accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, potentially supporting economic growth.

    • However, the Expectations Index below 80 still suggests some caution about recession risks in the near term.

  • Survey Details:

    • Conducted by The Conference Board with Toluna, based on an online sample of ~5,000 households, assessing current and future business, employment, and income conditions.

    • Data cutoff for May 2025 results was approximately mid-May, with final results released on May 27, 2025

Source: Forex Live