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Fed's Jefferson: Will keep policy in a place to be sure inflation expectations remain anchored
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson said on Monday that there are risks to both jobs and inflation and added that it is appropriate to wait and see on rate decisions, given the the uncertainty, per Reuters.
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NZD/USD recovers above 0.5900 as traders weigh US downgrade, mixed New Zealand data
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is recovering firmly above the 0.5900 mark agains the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, last seen trading around 0.5910, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The NZD/USD pair draws support from broad US Dollar weakness following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.
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USD/JPY can hold around 145 on a 1-to-3-month view – Rabobank
At the end of last week, Japanese Finance Minister Kato indicated that he would look to talk about FX with US Treasury Secretary Bessent this week. This has spurred investors to move back into long JPY positions.
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China: US undermines consensus reached in Geneva talks.
China reacts to US adjusting chip export controls
USD
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There is no stopping the US fiscal deficit train
Might as well throw more fuel on the fire
USD
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Fed’s Williams flags cautious optimism amid lingering uncertainty
New York Fed President John Williams struck a balanced tone in his latest remarks, highlighting strength in recent US data while acknowledging steady uncertainty around trade.
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White House’s Hassett: Moody’s decision is backward-looking
White House’s economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, hinted at the likelihood that further trade deals could be in the offing.
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China
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US-EU trade discussion are being complicated by internal EU disagreement.
Meanwhile WH Hassett says would not be surprised more trade deals announced this week
USD
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Mexican Peso strengthens amid US Dollar pressure, Fed signals, and higher yields
The Mexican Peso (MXN) remains firm against the US Dollar (USD) as markets react to renewed uncertainty following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The decision to lower the sovereign rating to AA1 from AAA has prompted a reassessment of the US Dollar’s status.
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More signs that the US-Japan trade agreement is on ice
Deal likely delayed until after July Japanese elections
JPY
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It's an official holiday in Canada (and an unofficial one)
Canadian markets closed today
CAD
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Forexlive European FX news wrap: Rough day for USD and US Treasuries
Forex news from the European morning session on May 19, 2025
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Wrap Europe
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US Dollar attempts to limit image dent with DXY down over 0.5%
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, stuck at the lower level for this Monday near 100.30 at the time of writing.
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WTI slumps to near $61 as Moody’s US downgrade sparks US bond yields
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, tumbles to near $61.00 on Monday. The Oil price faces selling pressure since opening the week due to a significant increase in US Treasury yields.
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Fed's Bostic: Inflation not moving to target as fast as anticipated
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said that inflation is not moving to target as fast as anticipated and reiterated that he leans toward only one rate cut this year because it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs, per Reuters.
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Fed's Bostic: Moody's downgrade will cut across economics, financial markets
Fed's Bostic on CNBC
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China: April activity overshadowed by tariff war – Standard Chartered
Activity data points to softening momentum from Q1, but industrial production has held up. Frontloaded exports and macro policy implementation to continue to support growth in Q2. Property market remains the key drag for the domestic economy.
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USD/JPY tumbles below 145.00 as Moody’s downgrade weighs on the US Dollar
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) into a fifth consecutive day on Monday, with USD/JPY falling below the 145.00 psychological mark to trade near 144.70 during the European session, driven by broad-based USD weakness and fresh hawkish signals from the Bank
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UK Government releases further details of EU reset deal
Discussion on details of each commitment will continue
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USD: Moodys follows eventually with downgrade – MUFG
The US Dollar (USD) is softer and longer-term yields are higher with the S&P future down 1.0% suggesting the potential for a day of triple selling of US assets that is being driven by the decision of Moodys to downgrade the sovereign rating of the US from the top Aaa rating to Aa1.
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FXS Fed Sentiment Index stays in hawkish territory as markets await fresh comments
The Federal Reserve (Fed) left the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% following the May policy meeting, as widely anticipated. In the policy statement, the Fed noted that the economic outlook uncertainty has increased further.
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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Jumps to near 0.6450 on US downgrade
The AUD/USD pair gains sharply to near 0.6450 during European trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms after Moody’s downgraded the United States (US) Sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa in the wake of mounting debt levels.
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USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1990/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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USD/CNH holds below key resistance – BBH
The Chinese yuan remains under pressure as April’s economic data came in softer than expected, reinforcing calls for further policy support to sustain growth, BBH FX analysts report.
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USDCNY
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The USD is not the only one having a rough day as Bitcoin erased all the weekend gains
The odd weekend gains got wiped out as Bitcoin remains vulnerable to risk-off flows
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USD/JPY: Major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could drop below 144.90 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 144.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD remains in consolidation, but likely within a tighter range of 144.50/147.30, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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China: April data show hit from trade war pre-Geneva – ABN AMRO
April data confirm hit from trade war escalation last month. Growth momentum expected to pick up again following Geneva truce, but uncertainty remains, ABN AMRO's economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reports.
China
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Who has to pay the US tariffs? – Commerzbank
Economics normally suffers from a painful deficiency: unlike biologists, physicists, psychologists, and other scientists, economists are generally unable to conduct experiments.
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NZD/USD: Expected to edge higher and test 0.5920 – UOB Group
There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum; NZD is expected to edge higher and test 0.5920. In the longer run, outlook remains mixed, but NZD is likely to trade in a tighter range of 0.5835/0.5985, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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USD: Dollar stays soft post Moody's downgrade – ING
Late on Friday, the rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating one notch to Aa1, having had the US on a negative outlook for a year, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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EUR/USD surges as US credit downgrade batters US Dollar
EUR/USD trades 0.85% higher to near 1.1290 during North American trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers due to erosion in the United States (US) Sovereign Credit Rating.
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AUD/USD: Upward momentum is still slowing – UOB Group
A breach of 0.6370 would mean that the current price movements are part of a range trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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AUD: RBA set to cut 25bp early Tuesday – ING
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut rates tomorrow morning (06.30 CET), ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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Banks
Technical Analysis
RBA
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Fxstreet
Gold unable to break above key resistance level at $3,245 despite surging uncertainties
Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher, trading over 1% on Monday and hits $3,240 at the time of writing, while traders mull three main elements this Monday. Tensions are brewing in the Middle East with Israel embarking on another massive ground offensive.
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Oil: Speculators buy Brent – ING
The Oil market managed a second consecutive week of gains, driven largely by tariff de-escalation. However, the market is in limbo this morning as it weighs what impact, if any, the US credit downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service will have on Oil.
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RBA: Will it or won't it? – Commerzbank
Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will decide on its key interest rate. The market is pricing in a rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.85%.
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RBA
Australia
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EUR: Politics is a positive – ING
Not that it is normally a big driver of the euro exchange rate, but the outcome of the Romanian presidential election will be welcome news in Brussels as it prevents a further splintering of the bloc, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Banks
EURUSD
Technical Analysis
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