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PBOC signals weaker yuan as USD/CNH tests resistance – BBH
PBOC signals weaker yuan as USD/CNH tests resistance – BBH
The Shanghai Composite Index recovered slightly today after diving by roughly 9% on Monday. China’s state fund manager, controlled by the Ministry of Finance, confirmed it had taken action to increase its holdings of stock market index funds and promised to buy more, BBH FX analysts report.
PBOC
China
USDCNH
Banks
US recession odds rise as global trade conflict deepens
US recession odds rise as global trade conflict deepens
Expectations for the United States (US) economy to tip into recession this year gain traction following the introduction of aggressive tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
Recession
GDP
TradeWar
UnitedStates
EUR/USD falls back on hopes of lower Trump tariffs
EUR/USD falls back on hopes of lower Trump tariffs
EUR/USD surrenders its entire intraday gains and falls back to near 1.0900 in Tuesday’s North American trading session.
Recession
ECB
EURUSD
Fed
SEO
S&P 500 faces crucial support at 4800pts after breakdown – Société Générale
S&P 500 faces crucial support at 4800pts after breakdown – Société Générale
S&P 500 has experienced a steep decline after breaking down from its multi-month range, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
SP500
NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range – UOB Group
NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a 0.5500/0.5600 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise, but it remains to be seen if NZD can decline to the next support at 0.5450, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
NZDUSD
USD/CNH eyes breakout as 7.37 resistance looms – Société Générale
USD/CNH eyes breakout as 7.37 resistance looms – Société Générale
USD/CNH has rebounded after defending the 200-DMA at 7.22. Daily MACD has entered positive territory highlighting regain of upward momentum, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Technical Analysis
USDCNH
Banks
AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 – UOB Group
AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 – UOB Group
Instead of continuing to drop, Australian Dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a range of 0.5945/0.6110 vs US Dollar (USD).
Technical Analysis
Banks
AUDUSD
Gas prices hit 7-month low – ING
Gas prices hit 7-month low – ING
European natural gas prices haven’t escaped the broader risk-off move, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Gas
Energy
Banks
Gold price edges up over 1% on Trump not liking a 90-day pause on tariffs
Gold price edges up over 1% on Trump not liking a 90-day pause on tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) pops while Equities run higher after their nosedive move on Monday and past Friday. The precious metal trades just above the $3,000 mark at the time of writing on Tuesday. The bounce is supported by a technical element on the one hand and a geopolitical driver on the other.
TradeWar
UnitedStates
SEO
Gold
Commodities
ECB’s Stournaras: Monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025
ECB’s Stournaras: Monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned on Tuesday, “monetary policy is to be less restrictive in 2025.”
ECB
EURUSD
CentralBanks
InterestRate
USD: Wild moves continue – ING
USD: Wild moves continue – ING
Markets remain on edge as trade tensions, erratic headlines, and shifting currency dynamics drive sharp moves across asset classes. While some signs of optimism emerge, risks to the US dollar and commodity-linked currencies persist, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Technical Analysis
Banks
DollarIndex
ECB's Šimkus: 25 bps rate cut needed in April
ECB's Šimkus: 25 bps rate cut needed in April
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Tuesday that a“25 basis points (bps) rate cut is needed in April.”
ECB
EURUSD
CentralBanks
InterestRate
Oil: Tariff tensions build – ING
Oil: Tariff tensions build – ING
Oil prices witnessed something of a relief rally this morning. Yet risks are still skewed to the downside as President Trump threatens an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods if it doesn’t lift its 34% retaliatory tariff today. It's unlikely that China will reverse the policy.
Oil
Energy
Banks
ECB's Simkus: 25 bps rate cut needed in April
ECB's Simkus: 25 bps rate cut needed in April
Remarks by ECB policymaker, Gediminas Šimkus
GBP/USD: Set to edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilising – UOB Group
GBP/USD: Set to edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilising – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could edge lower to 1.2675 before stabilisation is likely vs US Dollar (USD); any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.2580.
Technical Analysis
Banks
GBPUSD
Citi slashes China GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.2%
Citi slashes China GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.2%
The firm previously expected the Chinese economy to expand by 4.7% in 2025
NZD/USD sticks to gains near 0.5600 on weaker USD; bulls seem cautious amid tariff worries
NZD/USD sticks to gains near 0.5600 on weaker USD; bulls seem cautious amid tariff worries
The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction on Tuesday and builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session.
NZDUSD
RiskAppetite
Fed
TradeWar
Currencies
CNY: Controlled depreciation – ING
CNY: Controlled depreciation – ING
USD/CNY edged a little higher today to around 7.33 as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing above 7.20 for the first time since 2023.
China
USDCNY
USDCNH
Banks
Wall Street price targets and why you should always ignore them
Wall Street price targets and why you should always ignore them
The consensus for 2025 was a 12.3% gain in the S&P 500 by year-end but we are now down more than 20% from the ATH. Here's why you should always ignore such predictions.
market overview
EU's von der Leyen says had constructive phone call with Chinese premier Li Qiang
EU's von der Leyen says had constructive phone call with Chinese premier Li Qiang
The two discussed the state of EU-China relations and also touched on trade
Politics
Gold slides below $3,000 – ING
Gold slides below $3,000 – ING
Gold fell further on Monday, with prices sliding below $3,000/oz.
XAUUSD
Metals
Gold
Banks
India Gold price today: Gold rebounds as US-China trade war revives haven demand
India Gold price today: Gold rebounds as US-China trade war revives haven demand
Gold prices in India witnesses a turnaround Tuesday as the US-China trade war escalates and revives the safe-haven demand for the bullion.
Gold
India
Commodities
TradeWar
EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030 – UOB Group
EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0860 and 1.1030. In the longer run, decrease in momentum indicates the chance for EUR to rise has diminished; a breach of 1.0850 would suggest EUR has entered a range-trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
Dollar stays on the backfoot in European morning trade
Dollar stays on the backfoot in European morning trade
Not too much going on as markets seek a breather before the next set of tariff headlines in US later
EUR: Stable short-term fair value around 1.090 – ING
EUR: Stable short-term fair value around 1.090 – ING
EUR/USD is trading just below 1.10 after having oscillated in a wide band (1.088-1.104) since the weekend.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
UBS cuts Eurozone growth forecast for this year to 0.5%
UBS cuts Eurozone growth forecast for this year to 0.5%
The firm previously forecast the euro area economy to grow by 0.9% in 2025
Pound Sterling recovers against US Dollar on US recession fears
Pound Sterling recovers against US Dollar on US recession fears
The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back to near 1.2800 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s North American session from the monthly low of 1.2707 posted on Monday. The GBP/USD pair recovers as the US Dollar resumes its downside move after a short-lived recovery in the last two trading days.
Recession
Fed
SEO
BOE
GBPUSD
Forex Today: Tariff talks under scrutiny following volatile opening to week
Forex Today: Tariff talks under scrutiny following volatile opening to week
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 8:
Currencies
TradeWar
Majors
Commodities
Politics
Crude oil price today: WTI price mostly unchanged at European opening
Crude oil price today: WTI price mostly unchanged at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Tuesday, early in the European session.
Oil
WTI
Commodities
European indices look for a bounce after a dreadful past few sessions
European indices look for a bounce after a dreadful past few sessions
Stocks in Europe are breathing a little easier today
Stocks
USD/CHF remains under selling pressure near 0.8550 amid Trump tariff turmoil
USD/CHF remains under selling pressure near 0.8550 amid Trump tariff turmoil
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8550 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Swiss Franc (CHF) as the fears of a global recession heighten following US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on trading partners.
USDCHF
Majors
Macroeconomics
The yuan devaluation is now a big risk for markets
The yuan devaluation is now a big risk for markets
Trump escalated the trade war further threatening additional 50% tariffs on China effective tomorrow if they don't back off from the recent retaliatory tariffs. This move increased the risk of the yuan devaluation which could roil the markets if enacted.
market overview
EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.
India
China‘s Foreign Ministry: US actions do not show willingness for serious talks
China‘s Foreign Ministry: US actions do not show willingness for serious talks
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that “US actions do not show willingness for serious talks.”
China
TradeWar
UnitedStates
AUDUSD
What are the main events for today?
What are the main events for today?
Another day of low tier releases as the focus remains on tariffs news ahead of the deadline tomorrow
market overview