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Gold on the rollercoaster – Commerzbank
"The price of Gold went on a bit of a rollercoaster ride on Thursday, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
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OPEC still sees undersupplied Oil market – Commerzbank
OPEC has also confirmed its forecasts for Oil demand, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slides to near $32.30 on US-China trade optimism
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls sharply to near $32.30 during European trading hours on Friday. The white metal is down over 1% as investors become increasingly confident about a trade deal between the United States (US) and China.
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IEA sees Oil market still significantly oversupplied despite higher demand forecast – Commerzbank
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has left its forecast for the increase in global Oil demand virtually unchanged. It expects growth of 740 thousand and 760 thousand barrels per day this year and next year respectively. However, demand momentum is expected to slow over the course of the year.
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Gold falls as trade tensions ease and Fed outlook shifts – Commerzbank
The price of Gold has come under considerable pressure in recent days, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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UK: EU trade deal remains the biggest prize – Standard Chartered
The UK government is aiming to build on recent momentum after trade deals with the US and India. The UK-EU summit on 19 May presents an opportunity to start reducing non-tariff barriers.
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Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul set to begin shortly
Reuters with the headline, citing a source from the Turkish foreign ministry
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Oil gains on trade optimism, then slips on Iran talks – Commerzbank
Oil prices rose significantly earlier this week, before falling again recently, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
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Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data.
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JPY: No summer hike – Commerzbank
The Japanese economy has not gotten off to a particularly good start this year. According to GDP figures published this morning, economic output declined slightly in the first quarter, falling by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.
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USD/CNH: Expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1970/7.2190 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 7.1970/7.2190. In the longer run, a breach of 7.2330 would indicate that the likelihood of USD declining to 7.1700 has faded, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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USD/CNH: 2-way trades likely – OCBC
USD/CNY fix continues to come in slightly softer (and below spot) for the whole week, last seen trading at 7.2057 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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EUR/USD declines as US consumer inflation expectations rise further
EUR/USD slides to near 1.11500 during North American trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) turns positive after recovering initial losses, following the release of the flash United States (US) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data for May.
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USD/JPY: Upward momentum has dissipated – UOB Group
Scope for USD to grind lower and test 144.95 vs Japanese Yen (JPY); a sustained break below this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, upward momentum has dissipated; USD is expected to consolidate in a range of 144.50/148.50 for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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What are the interest rates expectations after this week's events and data?
Expectations consolidated for most central banks. The economic data will determine the next direction for the repricing.
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USD/JPY: Short bias on the daily charts – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade lower amid decline in UST yields. Pair was last at 145.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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RUB: Unrealistic optimism – Commerzbank
USD/RUB and EUR/RUB are not market-driven or floating exchange rates. Even so, at this time, these exchange rates are reflecting excessive optimism that the US administration will push for a peace treaty with Ukraine and this will involve some of the harsh sanctions on Russia being removed.
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DXY: Slight downside risk – OCBC
USD turned lower, tracking UST yields lower. DXY was last at 100.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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Russia demands that talks with Ukraine take place without US, Turkish representatives
Reuters reports on the matter
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NZD/USD: Under mild downward pressure – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD); it could drift lower and test 0.5855. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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US natural gas prices drop 3.7% on storage data – ING
US natural gas prices fell sharply after storage data from the EIA revealed a larger-than-average inventory build, reinforcing concerns over supply resilience despite year-on-year deficits, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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S.Korea Trade Minister: Possibility that the trade deal might come after 8 July deadline
South Korea's Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Friday that “there is a possibility that the trade deal might come after the 8 July deadline.”
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AUD/USD: Expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 – UOB Group
Downward momentum has not increased further; Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade between 0.6380 and 0.6445 against US Dollar (USD).
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Iran nuclear deal hopes – ING
The oil market sold off yesterday following comments from President Trump that the US and Iran were moving closer towards a nuclear deal, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
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GBP/USD: Set to trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a range of 1.3270/1.3345. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.3140/1.3405 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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What drives the repricing in interest rates expectations is key for the market
The two main drivers of the repricing are growth and inflation. It's important to distinguish the main driver of the repricing because you can have different outcomes.
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USD: Dovish momentum re-emerging – ING
This week’s data flow has been quite dovish for the Federal Reserve. After the soft April CPI, PPI dropped by 0.5% month-on-month, against expectations of a 0.2% rise, with significant upward revisions for March data.
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Gold slides 2% lower with peace talks in Turkey going ahead
Gold (XAU/USD) price trades on the backfoot, trading at $3,178 at the time of writing on Friday while multiple questions and concerns arise in markets and amongst traders.
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EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.1145 and 1.1235 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to continue to range trade, likely between 1.1145 and 1.1235. In the longer run, EUR is likely to consolidate between 1.1100 and 1.1290 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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South Korea says there is possibility trade deal might come after 8 July deadline
Further remarks by South Korea's trade chief Ahn Duk-geun
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EUR: Tied to 1.12, but looking up – ING
The Euro (EUR) has been only marginally impacted by domestic news this week. 1Q growth was revised a touch lower from 0.4% to 0.3% yesterday, although March industrial production figures were stronger than expected, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes
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Eurozone March trade balance €36.8 billion vs €24.0 billion prior
Latest data released by Eurostat - 16 May 2025
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South Korea delegation to visit US next week for further tariff negotiations
Remarks by South Korea's trade minister
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President Trump: US officials will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals
Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Friday, US President Donald Trump said that “his official will will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals.”
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Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty
Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that he “sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty.”
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Fed's Bostic sees just one rate cuts this year amid uncertainty
Comments from the Fed policymaker, Raphael Bostic
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Forex Today: Market focus shifts to US consumer sentiment data
Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 16:
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Trump says US officials will send letters out soon to countries for trade deals
US president Trump remarks in Abu Dhabi
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Italy April final CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y prelim
Latest data released by Istat - 16 May 2025
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Pound Sterling weakens against USD even as Michigan Sentiment data slides again
The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns upside down below 1.3330 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s North American session.
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